Monday, November 22, 2004

If you don't find the concept of a gasoline war tax compelling and stubbornly insist that gasoline should be as cheap an plentiful as water, don't think of it as a "war tax," think of it was a "war prevention tax. The United States has fought wars caused by oil, and it's naive to think that the United States has never been induced by oil to enter into wars, but in those cases, it was always mixed in with other reasons. That may change, however, in the next 20 to 50 years, though. If our economy isn't weaned off oil, it is inevitable that we (along with other industrialized nations) will make a bald grab for oil. The United States may be top dog today, but I hesitate to assert the same will be true in 20 to 50 years. With all the difficulties in Iraq even as top dog, I shudder to think what such a war would be like. Heavily taxing gasoline wouldn't just pay for our current military involvement; it would also force us to find alternative energy sources 1 so that, while the rest of the world is squabbling over oil, we're sitting pretty in our nuclear/wind/solar-powered fortress. There is a counter-argument that the market will naturally solve the problem once the price of oil rose enough. Seeing how our government's foreign policy has already been influenced by oil with it as cheap and plentiful as it is today, it's clear to me that the tail is going to wag the dog even harder in the future; natural market forces have never been the dominant factor in oil. Think of a gas tax as part of your patriotic duty. Paying a little extra now will help us avoid paying more later, in money and in blood.

1 Drilling domestically is not an alternative. I oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) not because I love furry animals but because it isn't a solution. The best estimates indicate that it contains about 6 months worth of domestic consumption. That isn't enough to make a strategic difference; it only buys a little time and gives the energy companies money they can't wait for. I see it as a given that we will drill in ANWR eventually, but it's ridiculous to do it for the sole reason that oil is at $47/barrel. We need to keep it in reserve for when we really need it.

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