I don't hold out high hopes for a Kerry presidency. Part of it is the man. In addition, he will be facing a hostile and Republican Congress 1 . Most important, however, is that Bush's policies have constrained and shackled Kerry to an extent unmatched previously 2 . Many decisions have effectively been made for Kerry, especially in the big issues like Iraq and tax policy, and to back out either is impossible or would be catastrophic.
The greatest virtue of Kerry the President is the same as of Kerry the candidate: he is not Bush. We can be relatively sure that he will not initiate disasters such as the invasion of Iraq 3 . However, he will be beholden to disasters that have already been created. I see little likelihood of his policy initiatives gaining traction, given the fiscal burden of Iraq and the tax cuts. In some ways, there is a silver lining to a second Bush administration. I oppose Bush's presidency because I think his policies lead to more bad things and fewer good things than would happen under better policies. Bush has spent four years either evading or delaying the reckoning, but after eight years, it would be impossible for all but the most partisan Bush supporter to deny. Four more years of Bush would put the nail in the coffin for neoconservatism, supply-side economics, and other bad Bush policies 4 . A Kerry victory would actually let those bad ideas live on, as any failures resulting from them would instead be blamed on Kerry.
In several places I have seen statements like (paraphrased), "this is not the most important election of our lives; the most important election of our lives was in November 2000, but we didn't know it at the time." The more I think about it, the more I agree. With Election Day now upon us, it is important that we have reasonable expectations of what is to come. I will celebrate a Kerry victory, but I know that it will take a lot more to repair the damage done by four years of George W. Bush.